# Playbook-Lift Reality Test — Run 001

**Generated:** 2026-04-30T10:50:22.550677651Z
**Judge:** `qwen2.5:latest` (Ollama, resolved from env JUDGE_MODELqwen2.5:latest)
**Corpora:** `workers,ethereal_workers`
**Workers limit:** 5000
**Queries:** `tests/reality/playbook_lift_queries.txt` (21 executed)
**K per pass:** 10
**Evidence:** `reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_001.json`

---

## Headline

| Metric | Value |
|---|---:|
| Total queries run | 21 |
| Cold-pass discoveries (judge-best ≠ top-1) | 8 |
| Warm-pass lifts (recorded playbook → top-1) | 7 |
| No change (judge-best already top-1, no playbook needed) | 14 |
| Playbook boosts triggered (warm pass) | 9 |
| Mean Δ top-1 distance (warm − cold) | -0.053097825 |

**Lift rate:** 7 of 8 discoveries became top-1 after warm pass.

---

## Per-query results

| # | Query | Cold top-1 | Cold judge-best (rank/rating) | Recorded? | Warm top-1 | Judge-best warm rank | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forklift operator with OSHA-30, warehouse experience, day sh | e-2085 | 2/4 | ✓ w-2019 | w-2019 | 0 | **YES** |
| 2 | OSHA-30 certified forklift operator in Wisconsin, cold stora | e-6293 | 7/3 | — | e-6293 | 7 | no |
| 3 | Production worker with confined-space cert and hazmat traini | w-4552 | 7/3 | — | w-4552 | 7 | no |
| 4 | CDL Class A driver, clean record, willing to do regional 4-d | w-3272 | 0/1 | — | w-3272 | 0 | no |
| 5 | Warehouse lead with current OSHA-30 certification, NOT OSHA- | w-4833 | 5/4 | ✓ w-195 | w-195 | 0 | **YES** |
| 6 | Forklift-certified loader, certification must be active, dis | e-2975 | 2/4 | ✓ w-3821 | w-3821 | 0 | **YES** |
| 7 | Hazmat-certified warehouse worker comfortable with cold stor | w-4965 | 2/4 | ✓ w-4257 | w-4257 | 0 | **YES** |
| 8 | Bilingual production worker with team-lead experience and tr | w-4115 | 0/4 | — | w-4115 | 0 | no |
| 9 | Inventory specialist with confined-space cert and compliance | w-3819 | 1/3 | — | w-3819 | 1 | no |
| 10 | Warehouse worker who can run inventory cycles and lead a sma | e-8132 | 0/4 | — | e-8132 | 0 | no |
| 11 | Production line worker comfortable filling in as line superv | w-2377 | 3/4 | ✓ w-2954 | w-2954 | 0 | **YES** |
| 12 | Customer service rep willing to cross-train into dispatch or | e-1332 | 2/2 | — | e-1332 | 2 | no |
| 13 | Reliable production line lead with strong attendance and lea | e-4284 | 6/4 | ✓ e-5778 | e-5778 | 0 | **YES** |
| 14 | Highly responsive forklift operator available for last-minut | e-3695 | 2/4 | ✓ e-5385 | e-5385 | 0 | **YES** |
| 15 | Engaged warehouse associate with strong safety compliance re | e-7646 | 9/4 | ✓ e-2028 | w-4257 | 1 | no |
| 16 | CDL-A driver based in IL or WI, willing to run regional 4-da | w-3272 | 7/2 | — | w-3272 | 7 | no |
| 17 | Bilingual customer service rep in Indianapolis or Cincinnati | e-4240 | 6/2 | — | e-4240 | 6 | no |
| 18 | Production supervisor open to Midwest relocation for permane | w-1876 | 0/2 | — | w-1876 | 0 | no |
| 19 | Dental hygienist with three years experience, Indianapolis a | w-211 | 0/1 | — | w-211 | 0 | no |
| 20 | Registered nurse with ICU experience, willing to take per-di | w-577 | 0/1 | — | w-577 | 0 | no |
| 21 | Software engineer with React and TypeScript, three years exp | w-2407 | 0/1 | — | w-2407 | 0 | no |

---

## Honesty caveats

1. **Judge IS the ground truth proxy.** Without human-labeled relevance, the LLM
   judge's verdict is what defines "best." If `qwen2.5:latest` rates badly,
   the lift number is meaningless. To validate the judge itself, sample 5–10
   verdicts manually and check agreement.
2. **Score-1.0 boost = distance halved.** Playbook math is
   `distance' = distance × (1 - 0.5 × score)`. Lift requires the judge-best
   result's pre-boost distance to be ≤ 2× the cold top-1's distance, otherwise
   even halving doesn't promote it. Tight clusters → little visible lift.
3. **Same-query replay is the cheap case.** Real lift comes from *similar but
   not identical* queries hitting a recorded playbook. This run only tests
   verbatim replay. A v2 should add paraphrase queries.
4. **Multi-corpus skew.** Default corpora=`workers,ethereal_workers` — if all judge-best
   results land in one corpus, the matrix layer's purpose isn't being tested.
   Check per-corpus distribution in the JSON.
5. **Judge resolution.** This run used `qwen2.5:latest` from
   env JUDGE_MODEL overrideqwen2.5:latest.
   Bumping the judge for run #N+1 means editing one line in lakehouse.toml.

## Next moves

- If lift rate ≥ 50% of discoveries: matrix layer + playbook is doing real
  work. Move to paraphrase queries + tag-based boost (currently ignored).
- If lift rate < 20%: investigate why — judge variance, distance gap too
  wide, or playbook math too gentle. The score=1.0 / 0.5× formula may need
  retuning.
- If discovery rate (cold judge-best ≠ top-1) is itself low: cosine is
  already close to optimal on this query distribution. Either the corpus
  is too narrow or the queries are too easy.
