root 0331288641 playbook_lift: LLM-based role extractor closes shorthand bleed (real_004)
real_003 left a known-weak hole: shorthand-style queries
("{count} {role} {city} {state} ...") have no separator between
role and city, so a regex can't reliably extract — leaving the
cross-role gate disabled when both record AND query are shorthand.

This commit adds a roleExtractor with regex-first + LLM fallback:

- Regex first (fast, deterministic) — handles need + client_first +
  looking from real_003b. ~75% of styles, no LLM cost paid.
- LLM fallback when regex returns empty AND model is configured —
  Ollama-shape /api/chat with format=json, schema-tight prompt,
  temperature 0. ~1-3s on local qwen2.5.
- Per-process cache — paraphrase + rejudge passes reuse the same
  query 4× per run; cache prevents 4× LLM cost.
- Off-by-default — opt-in via -llm-role-extract flag (CLI) and
  LLM_ROLE_EXTRACT=1 env var (harness wrapper). real_003b shipping
  config unchanged unless explicitly enabled.

8 new tests in scripts/playbook_lift/main_test.go:
- TestRoleExtractor_RegexFirst: LLM not called when regex matches
- TestRoleExtractor_LLMFallback: shorthand goes to LLM
- TestRoleExtractor_LLMOffLeavesEmpty: opt-in default preserved
- TestRoleExtractor_Cache: 3 calls = 1 LLM hit
- TestRoleExtractor_NilSafe: nil receiver runs regex only
- TestExtractRoleViaLLM_HTTPError + _BadJSON: failure paths
- TestRoleExtractor_ClosesCrossRoleShorthandBleed: synthetic
  witness for the real_003 scenario — both record + query are
  shorthand, regex returns "" for both, LLM produces DIFFERENT
  role tokens for CNC vs Forklift, so matrix gate's cross-role
  rejection (locked separately in
  TestInjectPlaybookMisses_RoleGateRejectsCrossRole) fires
  correctly. This is the load-bearing verification.

Reality test real_004 ran the same 40-query stress as real_003 with
LLM extraction on. Cross-style same-role boosts fired correctly
across all 4 styles for Loaders + Packers + Shipping Clerk clusters
(including shorthand → other-style transfer). No cross-role bleed
observed. The reality test alone can't be a clean "with vs without"
comparison (HNSW build is non-deterministic across runs, and
real_004 stochastics didn't trigger a shorthand recording at all),
which is why the unit-test witness exists.

Production note (in real_004_findings.md): LLM extraction is for
reality-test coverage of arbitrary query shapes. Production should
extract role at INGEST time (when the inbox parser already runs an
LLM) and pass already-resolved role through requests — same shape
as multi_coord_stress's existing Demand{Role: ...} model. The hot
path should never need the harness extractor's per-query LLM cost.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-30 22:51:27 -05:00
..

reports/reality-tests — does the 5-loop substrate actually work?

Reality tests measure product outcomes, not substrate health. The 21 smokes prove the system runs; the proof harness proves the system makes the claims it claims; reality tests answer: does the small-model pipeline + matrix indexer + playbook give measurably better results than raw cosine?

This is the gate from project_small_model_pipeline_vision.md: "the playbook + matrix indexer must give the results we're looking for." Single load-bearing criterion. Throughput, scaling, code elegance are secondary.


What lives here

Each reality test is a numbered run that produces:

  • <test>_<NNN>.json — raw structured evidence (per-query data, summary metrics)
  • <test>_<NNN>.md — human-readable report with headline metrics, per-query table, honesty caveats, next moves

Runs are append-only. Earlier runs stay in tree as historical baseline.


Test catalog

playbook_lift_<NNN> — does the playbook actually lift the right answer?

Driver: scripts/playbook_lift.shbin/playbook_lift Queries: tests/reality/playbook_lift_queries.txt Pipeline: cold pass → LLM judge → playbook record → warm pass → measure ranking shift.

The headline question: when the LLM judge finds a better answer than cosine top-1, can the playbook boost it to top-1 on the next run? If yes, the learning loop closes; if no, the matrix layer + playbook is infrastructure for a thesis that doesn't pay rent.

See the run reports for honesty caveats — chiefly that the LLM judge IS the ground-truth proxy.


Running a reality test

# Defaults: judge resolved from lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge,
# workers limit 5000, run id 001
./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Re-run with a different judge to check inter-judge agreement
# (env JUDGE_MODEL overrides the config tier)
JUDGE_MODEL=qwen3:latest RUN_ID=002 ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Smaller scale for fast iteration
WORKERS_LIMIT=1000 K=5 RUN_ID=dev ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

Judge resolution priority (Phase 3, 2026-04-29):

  1. -judge flag on the Go driver (explicit override)
  2. JUDGE_MODEL env var (operator override)
  3. lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge (default)
  4. Hardcoded qwen3.5:latest (last-resort fallback if config missing)

This means model bumps land in lakehouse.toml, not in this script or the Go driver. Bumping local_judge to a stronger local model (e.g. when qwen4 ships) takes one line.

Requires: Ollama on :11434 with nomic-embed-text + the resolved judge model loaded. Skips cleanly (exit 0) if Ollama is absent.


Interpreting results

Three thresholds matter on the playbook_lift tests:

Lift rate (lifts / discoveries) Verdict
≥ 50% Loop closes — playbook is doing real work, move to paraphrase queries
20-50% Lift exists but inconsistent — investigate boost math (score × 0.5) or judge variance
< 20% Loop is not pulling its weight — diagnose before adding more components

A separate concern: discovery rate (cold judge-best ≠ cold top-1). If discovery is itself rare (< 30% of queries), cosine is already close to optimal on this query distribution and the matrix+playbook layer has little headroom. That's not necessarily a bug — but it means the value gate has to come from somewhere else (multi-corpus retrieval, domain-specific tags, drift signal).


What this is not

  • Not a benchmark. No comparison against external systems; only internal cold-vs-warm.
  • Not a regression gate. Each run is a snapshot. Scores will drift with corpus changes, judge updates, and playbook math tuning. Don't wire just verify to demand a minimum lift.
  • Not human-validated. The LLM judge is the ground truth proxy. Sample 5-10 verdicts manually per run to sanity-check the judge isn't pathological.