root 4da32ad102 embedd: bump default to nomic-embed-text-v2-moe (475M MoE, 768d drop-in)
Local Ollama has three embedding models loaded:
  nomic-embed-text:latest        137M  768d  (previous default)
  nomic-embed-text-v2-moe:latest 475M  768d  (this commit's default)
  qwen3-embedding:latest         7.6B  4096d (would require dim change)

v2-moe is a drop-in upgrade — same 768 dim, 3.5× more params, MoE
architecture. Workers index doesn't need rebuilding, just future ingests
embed with the stronger model.

Run #005 result on the multi-coord stress suite:

  Diversity (same-role-across-contracts): 0.080 → 0.000 (n=9)
    → MoE is more discriminating: zero worker overlap across
      Milwaukee / Indianapolis / Chicago for shared role names.
      The geo + cert + skill context fully separates worker pools.
  Different-roles-same-contract: 0.013 → 0.036 (still ~96% diff)
  Determinism: 1.000 (unchanged)
  Verbatim handover: 4/4 (100%)
  Paraphrase handover: 4/4 (100%)

  200-worker swap: Jaccard 0.000 (unchanged — still perfect)

  Fresh-resume verify: STILL doesn't surface fresh workers in top-8.
    With v2-moe, distances increased (top-1 = 0.43–0.65 vs v1's 0.25–0.39)
    — the embedder is MORE discriminating, but the fresh worker's
    vector still doesn't outrank the 8th-best existing worker. Now
    suspect of being an HNSW post-build add issue (coder/hnsw
    incremental adds can land in hard-to-reach graph regions, not an
    embedder problem). Better embedder didn't fix it; needs a
    different strategy: full index rebuild after fresh adds, or
    explicit playbook-layer score boost for fresh workers, or
    hybrid (keyword + semantic) retrieval. Phase 3 investigation.

Cost: ingest is ~5× slower (workers 20s→100s; ethereal 35s→112s).
Acceptable for the quality jump on diversity. Real production with
incremental ingest won't pay this once-per-deploy.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-30 08:26:52 -05:00
..

reports/reality-tests — does the 5-loop substrate actually work?

Reality tests measure product outcomes, not substrate health. The 21 smokes prove the system runs; the proof harness proves the system makes the claims it claims; reality tests answer: does the small-model pipeline + matrix indexer + playbook give measurably better results than raw cosine?

This is the gate from project_small_model_pipeline_vision.md: "the playbook + matrix indexer must give the results we're looking for." Single load-bearing criterion. Throughput, scaling, code elegance are secondary.


What lives here

Each reality test is a numbered run that produces:

  • <test>_<NNN>.json — raw structured evidence (per-query data, summary metrics)
  • <test>_<NNN>.md — human-readable report with headline metrics, per-query table, honesty caveats, next moves

Runs are append-only. Earlier runs stay in tree as historical baseline.


Test catalog

playbook_lift_<NNN> — does the playbook actually lift the right answer?

Driver: scripts/playbook_lift.shbin/playbook_lift Queries: tests/reality/playbook_lift_queries.txt Pipeline: cold pass → LLM judge → playbook record → warm pass → measure ranking shift.

The headline question: when the LLM judge finds a better answer than cosine top-1, can the playbook boost it to top-1 on the next run? If yes, the learning loop closes; if no, the matrix layer + playbook is infrastructure for a thesis that doesn't pay rent.

See the run reports for honesty caveats — chiefly that the LLM judge IS the ground-truth proxy.


Running a reality test

# Defaults: judge resolved from lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge,
# workers limit 5000, run id 001
./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Re-run with a different judge to check inter-judge agreement
# (env JUDGE_MODEL overrides the config tier)
JUDGE_MODEL=qwen3:latest RUN_ID=002 ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Smaller scale for fast iteration
WORKERS_LIMIT=1000 K=5 RUN_ID=dev ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

Judge resolution priority (Phase 3, 2026-04-29):

  1. -judge flag on the Go driver (explicit override)
  2. JUDGE_MODEL env var (operator override)
  3. lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge (default)
  4. Hardcoded qwen3.5:latest (last-resort fallback if config missing)

This means model bumps land in lakehouse.toml, not in this script or the Go driver. Bumping local_judge to a stronger local model (e.g. when qwen4 ships) takes one line.

Requires: Ollama on :11434 with nomic-embed-text + the resolved judge model loaded. Skips cleanly (exit 0) if Ollama is absent.


Interpreting results

Three thresholds matter on the playbook_lift tests:

Lift rate (lifts / discoveries) Verdict
≥ 50% Loop closes — playbook is doing real work, move to paraphrase queries
20-50% Lift exists but inconsistent — investigate boost math (score × 0.5) or judge variance
< 20% Loop is not pulling its weight — diagnose before adding more components

A separate concern: discovery rate (cold judge-best ≠ cold top-1). If discovery is itself rare (< 30% of queries), cosine is already close to optimal on this query distribution and the matrix+playbook layer has little headroom. That's not necessarily a bug — but it means the value gate has to come from somewhere else (multi-corpus retrieval, domain-specific tags, drift signal).


What this is not

  • Not a benchmark. No comparison against external systems; only internal cold-vs-warm.
  • Not a regression gate. Each run is a snapshot. Scores will drift with corpus changes, judge updates, and playbook math tuning. Don't wire just verify to demand a minimum lift.
  • Not human-validated. The LLM judge is the ground truth proxy. Sample 5-10 verdicts manually per run to sanity-check the judge isn't pathological.