root ce940f4a14 multi_coord_stress: judge re-rates inbox top-1 — recovers honesty signal
Run #007 surfaced a tradeoff: LLM-parsed inbox queries produce much
tighter cosine distances (0.05-0.10 in three cases) but lose the
"system has no good match" signal that high-distance results give.
A coordinator UI showing only distance can't tell wrong-domain
matches apart from real ones.

Fix: judge re-rates top-1 against the ORIGINAL inbox body (not the
LLM-parsed query). Coordinators see both:
  - distance: how close was retrieval in vector space
  - rating:   does this person actually fit the original ask
The pair tells the honest story.

Run #008 result on the 6 inbox events:

  Demand                Top-1     Distance  Rating  Reading
  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
  Forklift Cleveland    w-3573    0.29      4       Strong
  Production Indy       e-1764    0.41      3       Adjacent
  Crane Chicago         e-7798    0.23      1       TIGHT BUT WRONG
  Bilingual safety Indy w-3918    0.05      5       Perfect
  Drone Chicago         e-1058    0.06      5       Perfect (verify e-1058)
  Warehouse Milwaukee   w-460     0.32      4       Strong

The crane-Chicago case is the architectural-honesty signal at work:
distance 0.23 says "tight match" but the judge says rating 1 reading
the original body. A coordinator seeing only distance would ship the
wrong worker; coordinator seeing distance+rating sees the disagreement
and escalates.

Net distribution: 5/6 rated 3+ (acceptable→perfect), 1/6 rated 1
(irrelevant despite tight cosine). The substrate-honesty signal is
recovered without losing the LLM-parse quality wins.

Cost: 6 extra judge calls (~9s on qwen2.5). Production amortizes
when judge runs only on top-1 of high-priority inbox events; the
search-cost-vs-quality tradeoff lives in the priority gate.

Implementation:
- New JudgeRating int field on Event (omitempty so non-judged
  events stay clean in JSON)
- New judgeInboxResult helper, reusing the same prompt structure as
  playbook_lift's judgeRate. The two could share an internal package
  if a third judge consumer appears.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-30 16:16:49 -05:00
..

reports/reality-tests — does the 5-loop substrate actually work?

Reality tests measure product outcomes, not substrate health. The 21 smokes prove the system runs; the proof harness proves the system makes the claims it claims; reality tests answer: does the small-model pipeline + matrix indexer + playbook give measurably better results than raw cosine?

This is the gate from project_small_model_pipeline_vision.md: "the playbook + matrix indexer must give the results we're looking for." Single load-bearing criterion. Throughput, scaling, code elegance are secondary.


What lives here

Each reality test is a numbered run that produces:

  • <test>_<NNN>.json — raw structured evidence (per-query data, summary metrics)
  • <test>_<NNN>.md — human-readable report with headline metrics, per-query table, honesty caveats, next moves

Runs are append-only. Earlier runs stay in tree as historical baseline.


Test catalog

playbook_lift_<NNN> — does the playbook actually lift the right answer?

Driver: scripts/playbook_lift.shbin/playbook_lift Queries: tests/reality/playbook_lift_queries.txt Pipeline: cold pass → LLM judge → playbook record → warm pass → measure ranking shift.

The headline question: when the LLM judge finds a better answer than cosine top-1, can the playbook boost it to top-1 on the next run? If yes, the learning loop closes; if no, the matrix layer + playbook is infrastructure for a thesis that doesn't pay rent.

See the run reports for honesty caveats — chiefly that the LLM judge IS the ground-truth proxy.


Running a reality test

# Defaults: judge resolved from lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge,
# workers limit 5000, run id 001
./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Re-run with a different judge to check inter-judge agreement
# (env JUDGE_MODEL overrides the config tier)
JUDGE_MODEL=qwen3:latest RUN_ID=002 ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Smaller scale for fast iteration
WORKERS_LIMIT=1000 K=5 RUN_ID=dev ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

Judge resolution priority (Phase 3, 2026-04-29):

  1. -judge flag on the Go driver (explicit override)
  2. JUDGE_MODEL env var (operator override)
  3. lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge (default)
  4. Hardcoded qwen3.5:latest (last-resort fallback if config missing)

This means model bumps land in lakehouse.toml, not in this script or the Go driver. Bumping local_judge to a stronger local model (e.g. when qwen4 ships) takes one line.

Requires: Ollama on :11434 with nomic-embed-text + the resolved judge model loaded. Skips cleanly (exit 0) if Ollama is absent.


Interpreting results

Three thresholds matter on the playbook_lift tests:

Lift rate (lifts / discoveries) Verdict
≥ 50% Loop closes — playbook is doing real work, move to paraphrase queries
20-50% Lift exists but inconsistent — investigate boost math (score × 0.5) or judge variance
< 20% Loop is not pulling its weight — diagnose before adding more components

A separate concern: discovery rate (cold judge-best ≠ cold top-1). If discovery is itself rare (< 30% of queries), cosine is already close to optimal on this query distribution and the matrix+playbook layer has little headroom. That's not necessarily a bug — but it means the value gate has to come from somewhere else (multi-corpus retrieval, domain-specific tags, drift signal).


What this is not

  • Not a benchmark. No comparison against external systems; only internal cold-vs-warm.
  • Not a regression gate. Each run is a snapshot. Scores will drift with corpus changes, judge updates, and playbook math tuning. Don't wire just verify to demand a minimum lift.
  • Not human-validated. The LLM judge is the ground truth proxy. Sample 5-10 verdicts manually per run to sanity-check the judge isn't pathological.