root e9822f025d playbook_lift v2: paraphrase pass + run #002 finds boost-only limit
Adds an opt-in Pass 3 to the lift driver: for each query whose Pass 1
recorded a playbook, ask the judge to rephrase the query, then re-query
with playbook=true and check whether the recorded answer surfaces in
top-K. This is the test the v1 report's caveat #3 explicitly flagged
as the actual learning-property gate (not the cheap verbatim case).

Implementation:
- New flag --with-paraphrase on the driver (default off).
- New WITH_PARAPHRASE env in the harness (default 1, on for prod runs).
- New paraphrase_* fields on queryRun + summary, // 0 fallback in jq so
  re-rendering verbatim-only evidence stays clean.
- generateParaphrase() calls the same judge model with format=json and
  a tight schema; temperature=0.5 for variance without domain drift.
- Markdown report adds a paraphrase per-query table (only when the
  pass ran) and an honesty caveat about judge-also-rephrases coupling.

Run #002 result (reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_002.{json,md}):

  Verbatim lift               2/2 (100% — Q7 + Q13, both stable from v1)
  Paraphrase top-1            0/2
  Paraphrase any-rank in K    0/2

Both paraphrases dropped the recorded answer OUT of top-K entirely
(rank=-1). This isn't a paraphrase-quality problem — qwen2.5's outputs
preserved intent ("Hazmat-certified warehouse worker comfortable with
cold storage" → "Warehouse worker with Hazmat certification and
experience in cold storage"). It's the v0 boost-only stance documented
in internal/matrix/playbook.go:22-27: the boost only re-ranks results
that ALREADY surfaced from regular retrieval. If paraphrase's cosine
retrieval doesn't include the recorded answer in top-K, no boost can
promote it.

The "Shape B" upgrade mentioned in the playbook.go comment — inject
playbook hits directly even when they weren't in the top-K — is what
would close this gap. The reality test surfaced exactly the gap the
docs warned about. Worth filing as the next product gate.

Run-to-run variance also visible: v1 had 8 discoveries, v2 had 2.
HNSW insertion order + judge variance both contribute. Stability of
Q7 and Q13 across both runs (lifted in v1 AND v2) is the most reliable
signal in the dataset.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-30 06:47:41 -05:00
..

reports/reality-tests — does the 5-loop substrate actually work?

Reality tests measure product outcomes, not substrate health. The 21 smokes prove the system runs; the proof harness proves the system makes the claims it claims; reality tests answer: does the small-model pipeline + matrix indexer + playbook give measurably better results than raw cosine?

This is the gate from project_small_model_pipeline_vision.md: "the playbook + matrix indexer must give the results we're looking for." Single load-bearing criterion. Throughput, scaling, code elegance are secondary.


What lives here

Each reality test is a numbered run that produces:

  • <test>_<NNN>.json — raw structured evidence (per-query data, summary metrics)
  • <test>_<NNN>.md — human-readable report with headline metrics, per-query table, honesty caveats, next moves

Runs are append-only. Earlier runs stay in tree as historical baseline.


Test catalog

playbook_lift_<NNN> — does the playbook actually lift the right answer?

Driver: scripts/playbook_lift.shbin/playbook_lift Queries: tests/reality/playbook_lift_queries.txt Pipeline: cold pass → LLM judge → playbook record → warm pass → measure ranking shift.

The headline question: when the LLM judge finds a better answer than cosine top-1, can the playbook boost it to top-1 on the next run? If yes, the learning loop closes; if no, the matrix layer + playbook is infrastructure for a thesis that doesn't pay rent.

See the run reports for honesty caveats — chiefly that the LLM judge IS the ground-truth proxy.


Running a reality test

# Defaults: judge resolved from lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge,
# workers limit 5000, run id 001
./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Re-run with a different judge to check inter-judge agreement
# (env JUDGE_MODEL overrides the config tier)
JUDGE_MODEL=qwen3:latest RUN_ID=002 ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

# Smaller scale for fast iteration
WORKERS_LIMIT=1000 K=5 RUN_ID=dev ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

Judge resolution priority (Phase 3, 2026-04-29):

  1. -judge flag on the Go driver (explicit override)
  2. JUDGE_MODEL env var (operator override)
  3. lakehouse.toml [models].local_judge (default)
  4. Hardcoded qwen3.5:latest (last-resort fallback if config missing)

This means model bumps land in lakehouse.toml, not in this script or the Go driver. Bumping local_judge to a stronger local model (e.g. when qwen4 ships) takes one line.

Requires: Ollama on :11434 with nomic-embed-text + the resolved judge model loaded. Skips cleanly (exit 0) if Ollama is absent.


Interpreting results

Three thresholds matter on the playbook_lift tests:

Lift rate (lifts / discoveries) Verdict
≥ 50% Loop closes — playbook is doing real work, move to paraphrase queries
20-50% Lift exists but inconsistent — investigate boost math (score × 0.5) or judge variance
< 20% Loop is not pulling its weight — diagnose before adding more components

A separate concern: discovery rate (cold judge-best ≠ cold top-1). If discovery is itself rare (< 30% of queries), cosine is already close to optimal on this query distribution and the matrix+playbook layer has little headroom. That's not necessarily a bug — but it means the value gate has to come from somewhere else (multi-corpus retrieval, domain-specific tags, drift signal).


What this is not

  • Not a benchmark. No comparison against external systems; only internal cold-vs-warm.
  • Not a regression gate. Each run is a snapshot. Scores will drift with corpus changes, judge updates, and playbook math tuning. Don't wire just verify to demand a minimum lift.
  • Not human-validated. The LLM judge is the ground truth proxy. Sample 5-10 verdicts manually per run to sanity-check the judge isn't pathological.