golangLAKEHOUSE/reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_001.md
root b2e45f7f26 playbook_lift: harness expansion + reality test #001 (7/8 lift, 87.5%)
The 5-loop substrate's load-bearing gate is verified — playbook +
matrix indexer give the results we're looking for. Per the report's
rubric, lift ≥ 50% of discoveries means matrix is doing real work;
7/8 = 87.5% blew through that.

Harness was structurally hiding bugs behind a 5-daemon stripped boot.
Expanding to the full 10-daemon prod stack surfaced 7 fixes in cascade:

1. driver→matrixd: {"query": ...} → {"query_text": ...} field name
2. harness temp toml missing [s3] → wrong default bucket → catalogd
   rehydrate 500 on first call
3. harness→queryd SQL probe: {"q": ...} → {"sql": ...} field name
4. expand boot from 5 → 10 daemons in dep-ordered launch
5. add SQL surface probe (3-row CSV ingest → COUNT(*)=3 assertion)
6. candidates corpus was synthetic SWE-tech (Swift/iOS, Scala/Spark) —
   wrong domain for staffing queries; replaced with ethereal_workers
   (10K rows, real staffing schema, "e-" id prefix to avoid collision
   with workers' "w-"). staffing_workers driver gains -index-name +
   -id-prefix flags so the same binary serves both corpora
7. local_judge qwen3.5:latest is a vision-SSM 256K-ctx build running
   ~30s per judge call against the lift loop; reverted to
   qwen2.5:latest (~1s/call, 30× faster, held lift theory)

Each contract drift (1, 3) is now locked into a cmd/<bin>/main_test.go
so future drift fires in `go test`, not in a reality run. R-005 closed:

- cmd/matrixd/main_test.go (new) — playbook record drift detector +
  score bounds + 6 routes mounted
- cmd/queryd/main_test.go — wrong-field-name drift detector
- cmd/pathwayd/main_test.go (new) — 9 routes + add round-trip + retire
- cmd/observerd/main_test.go (new) — 4 routes + invalid-op + unknown-mode

`go test ./cmd/{matrixd,queryd,pathwayd,observerd}` all green.

Reality test results (reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_001.{json,md}):
  Queries              21 (staffing-domain, 7 categories)
  Discoveries          8 (judge ≠ cosine top-1)
  Lifts                7/8 (87.5%)
  Boosts triggered     9
  Mean Δ distance      -0.053 (warm closer than cold)
  OOD honesty          dental/RN/SWE rated 1, no fake matches
  Cross-corpus boosts  confirmed (e- ↔ w- swaps in lifts)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-30 06:22:21 -05:00

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# Playbook-Lift Reality Test — Run 001
**Generated:** 2026-04-30T10:50:22.550677651Z
**Judge:** `qwen2.5:latest` (Ollama, resolved from env JUDGE_MODELqwen2.5:latest)
**Corpora:** `workers,ethereal_workers`
**Workers limit:** 5000
**Queries:** `tests/reality/playbook_lift_queries.txt` (21 executed)
**K per pass:** 10
**Evidence:** `reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_001.json`
---
## Headline
| Metric | Value |
|---|---:|
| Total queries run | 21 |
| Cold-pass discoveries (judge-best ≠ top-1) | 8 |
| Warm-pass lifts (recorded playbook → top-1) | 7 |
| No change (judge-best already top-1, no playbook needed) | 14 |
| Playbook boosts triggered (warm pass) | 9 |
| Mean Δ top-1 distance (warm cold) | -0.053097825 |
**Lift rate:** 7 of 8 discoveries became top-1 after warm pass.
---
## Per-query results
| # | Query | Cold top-1 | Cold judge-best (rank/rating) | Recorded? | Warm top-1 | Judge-best warm rank | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forklift operator with OSHA-30, warehouse experience, day sh | e-2085 | 2/4 | ✓ w-2019 | w-2019 | 0 | **YES** |
| 2 | OSHA-30 certified forklift operator in Wisconsin, cold stora | e-6293 | 7/3 | — | e-6293 | 7 | no |
| 3 | Production worker with confined-space cert and hazmat traini | w-4552 | 7/3 | — | w-4552 | 7 | no |
| 4 | CDL Class A driver, clean record, willing to do regional 4-d | w-3272 | 0/1 | — | w-3272 | 0 | no |
| 5 | Warehouse lead with current OSHA-30 certification, NOT OSHA- | w-4833 | 5/4 | ✓ w-195 | w-195 | 0 | **YES** |
| 6 | Forklift-certified loader, certification must be active, dis | e-2975 | 2/4 | ✓ w-3821 | w-3821 | 0 | **YES** |
| 7 | Hazmat-certified warehouse worker comfortable with cold stor | w-4965 | 2/4 | ✓ w-4257 | w-4257 | 0 | **YES** |
| 8 | Bilingual production worker with team-lead experience and tr | w-4115 | 0/4 | — | w-4115 | 0 | no |
| 9 | Inventory specialist with confined-space cert and compliance | w-3819 | 1/3 | — | w-3819 | 1 | no |
| 10 | Warehouse worker who can run inventory cycles and lead a sma | e-8132 | 0/4 | — | e-8132 | 0 | no |
| 11 | Production line worker comfortable filling in as line superv | w-2377 | 3/4 | ✓ w-2954 | w-2954 | 0 | **YES** |
| 12 | Customer service rep willing to cross-train into dispatch or | e-1332 | 2/2 | — | e-1332 | 2 | no |
| 13 | Reliable production line lead with strong attendance and lea | e-4284 | 6/4 | ✓ e-5778 | e-5778 | 0 | **YES** |
| 14 | Highly responsive forklift operator available for last-minut | e-3695 | 2/4 | ✓ e-5385 | e-5385 | 0 | **YES** |
| 15 | Engaged warehouse associate with strong safety compliance re | e-7646 | 9/4 | ✓ e-2028 | w-4257 | 1 | no |
| 16 | CDL-A driver based in IL or WI, willing to run regional 4-da | w-3272 | 7/2 | — | w-3272 | 7 | no |
| 17 | Bilingual customer service rep in Indianapolis or Cincinnati | e-4240 | 6/2 | — | e-4240 | 6 | no |
| 18 | Production supervisor open to Midwest relocation for permane | w-1876 | 0/2 | — | w-1876 | 0 | no |
| 19 | Dental hygienist with three years experience, Indianapolis a | w-211 | 0/1 | — | w-211 | 0 | no |
| 20 | Registered nurse with ICU experience, willing to take per-di | w-577 | 0/1 | — | w-577 | 0 | no |
| 21 | Software engineer with React and TypeScript, three years exp | w-2407 | 0/1 | — | w-2407 | 0 | no |
---
## Honesty caveats
1. **Judge IS the ground truth proxy.** Without human-labeled relevance, the LLM
judge's verdict is what defines "best." If `qwen2.5:latest` rates badly,
the lift number is meaningless. To validate the judge itself, sample 510
verdicts manually and check agreement.
2. **Score-1.0 boost = distance halved.** Playbook math is
`distance' = distance × (1 - 0.5 × score)`. Lift requires the judge-best
result's pre-boost distance to be ≤ 2× the cold top-1's distance, otherwise
even halving doesn't promote it. Tight clusters → little visible lift.
3. **Same-query replay is the cheap case.** Real lift comes from *similar but
not identical* queries hitting a recorded playbook. This run only tests
verbatim replay. A v2 should add paraphrase queries.
4. **Multi-corpus skew.** Default corpora=`workers,ethereal_workers` — if all judge-best
results land in one corpus, the matrix layer's purpose isn't being tested.
Check per-corpus distribution in the JSON.
5. **Judge resolution.** This run used `qwen2.5:latest` from
env JUDGE_MODEL overrideqwen2.5:latest.
Bumping the judge for run #N+1 means editing one line in lakehouse.toml.
## Next moves
- If lift rate ≥ 50% of discoveries: matrix layer + playbook is doing real
work. Move to paraphrase queries + tag-based boost (currently ignored).
- If lift rate < 20%: investigate why judge variance, distance gap too
wide, or playbook math too gentle. The score=1.0 / 0.5× formula may need
retuning.
- If discovery rate (cold judge-best top-1) is itself low: cosine is
already close to optimal on this query distribution. Either the corpus
is too narrow or the queries are too easy.