golangLAKEHOUSE/reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_004.md

Playbook-Lift Reality Test — Run 004

Generated: 2026-04-30T12:23:36.594892386Z Judge: qwen2.5:latest (Ollama, resolved from env JUDGE_MODEL=qwen2.5:latest) Corpora: workers,ethereal_workers Workers limit: 5000 Queries: tests/reality/playbook_lift_queries.txt (21 executed) K per pass: 10 Paraphrase pass: ENABLED Evidence: reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_004.json

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Headline

Metric	Value
Total queries run	21
Cold-pass discoveries (judge-best ≠ top-1)	8
Warm-pass lifts (recorded playbook → top-1)	6
No change (judge-best already top-1, no playbook needed)	15
Playbook boosts triggered (warm pass)	8
Mean Δ top-1 distance (warm − cold)	-0.070719235
Paraphrase pass — recorded answer at rank 0 (top-1)	6 / 8
Paraphrase pass — recorded answer at any rank in top-K	6 / 8

Verbatim lift rate: 6 of 8 discoveries became top-1 after warm pass.

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Per-query results

#	Query	Cold top-1	Cold judge-best (rank/rating)	Recorded?	Warm top-1	Judge-best warm rank	Lift
1	Forklift operator with OSHA-30, warehouse experience, day sh	e-4983	1/4	✓ e-5729	e-5729	0	YES
2	OSHA-30 certified forklift operator in Wisconsin, cold stora	e-868	9/3	—	e-7308	-1	no
3	Production worker with confined-space cert and hazmat traini	w-4583	1/2	—	w-1231	2	no
4	CDL Class A driver, clean record, willing to do regional 4-d	w-3272	0/1	—	w-3272	0	no
5	Warehouse lead with current OSHA-30 certification, NOT OSHA-	w-2356	3/2	—	w-2356	3	no
6	Forklift-certified loader, certification must be active, dis	e-3940	3/4	✓ w-330	e-7453	1	no
7	Hazmat-certified warehouse worker comfortable with cold stor	w-4633	4/4	✓ e-7453	w-330	1	no
8	Bilingual production worker with team-lead experience and tr	w-2983	0/4	—	w-2983	0	no
9	Inventory specialist with confined-space cert and compliance	w-3037	7/4	✓ w-1231	w-1231	0	YES
10	Warehouse worker who can run inventory cycles and lead a sma	e-6649	1/4	✓ w-4113	w-4113	0	YES
11	Production line worker comfortable filling in as line superv	w-1010	3/4	✓ w-1153	w-1153	0	YES
12	Customer service rep willing to cross-train into dispatch or	e-6474	1/2	—	e-6474	1	no
13	Reliable production line lead with strong attendance and lea	e-4284	0/3	—	e-4284	0	no
14	Highly responsive forklift operator available for last-minut	e-285	4/4	✓ e-7308	e-7308	0	YES
15	Engaged warehouse associate with strong safety compliance re	e-8404	5/4	✓ w-3242	w-3242	0	YES
16	CDL-A driver based in IL or WI, willing to run regional 4-da	w-3257	4/2	—	w-3257	4	no
17	Bilingual customer service rep in Indianapolis or Cincinnati	w-1387	0/1	—	w-1387	0	no
18	Production supervisor open to Midwest relocation for permane	e-7478	1/2	—	e-7478	1	no
19	Dental hygienist with three years experience, Indianapolis a	e-2544	0/1	—	e-2544	0	no
20	Registered nurse with ICU experience, willing to take per-di	w-419	0/1	—	w-419	0	no
21	Software engineer with React and TypeScript, three years exp	w-334	0/1	—	w-334	0	no

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Paraphrase pass — does the playbook help similar-but-different queries?

For each query whose Pass 1 cold pass recorded a playbook entry, the judge model rephrased the query, and the rephrased version was sent through warm matrix.search. The recorded answer ID's rank in those results tests whether cosine on the embedded paraphrase finds the recorded query's vector.

#	Original (≤40c)	Paraphrase (≤60c)	Recorded answer	Paraphrase top-1	Recorded rank	Paraphrase lift
1	Forklift operator with OSHA-30, warehous	Seeking forklift operator certified in OSHA-30, with backgro	e-5729	e-5729	0	YES
6	Forklift-certified loader, certification	Loader with active forklift certification, separate from reg	w-330	w-330	0	YES
7	Hazmat-certified warehouse worker comfor	Warehouse worker with Hazmat certification and experience in	e-7453	e-7453	0	YES
9	Inventory specialist with confined-space	Individual needed for inventory management with certificatio	w-1231	w-987	-1	no
10	Warehouse worker who can run inventory c	Seeking a warehouse worker capable of conducting inventory c	w-4113	w-4113	0	YES
11	Production line worker comfortable filli	Seeking a production line worker capable of temporarily step	w-1153	w-1153	0	YES
14	Highly responsive forklift operator avai	Available for urgent forklift operation shifts requiring imm	e-7308	e-7308	0	YES
15	Engaged warehouse associate with strong	Warehouse associate currently engaged with a robust history	w-3242	e-2615	-1	no

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Honesty caveats

1. Judge IS the ground truth proxy. Without human-labeled relevance, the LLM judge's verdict is what defines "best." If qwen2.5:latest rates badly, the lift number is meaningless. To validate the judge itself, sample 5–10 verdicts manually and check agreement.
2. Score-1.0 boost = distance halved. Playbook math is distance' = distance × (1 - 0.5 × score). Lift requires the judge-best result's pre-boost distance to be ≤ 2× the cold top-1's distance, otherwise even halving doesn't promote it. Tight clusters → little visible lift.
3. Verbatim vs paraphrase. The verbatim lift rate (above) is the cheap case — same query, recorded playbook, expected boost. The paraphrase pass (when enabled) is the actual learning property: similar-but-different queries hitting a recorded playbook. Compare verbatim and paraphrase lift rates — paraphrase should be lower (semantic-distance gates some playbook hits) but non-zero is the meaningful signal.
4. Multi-corpus skew. Default corpora=workers,ethereal_workers — if all judge-best results land in one corpus, the matrix layer's purpose isn't being tested. Check per-corpus distribution in the JSON.
5. Judge resolution. This run used qwen2.5:latest from env JUDGE_MODEL=qwen2.5:latest. Bumping the judge for run #N+1 means editing one line in lakehouse.toml.
6. Paraphrase generation also uses the judge. The same model that rates relevance also rephrases queries. A judge that's bad at rating staffing queries is probably also bad at rephrasing them. Worth sanity-checking a sample of paraphrase_query values in the JSON before trusting the paraphrase lift number.

Next moves

• If lift rate ≥ 50% of discoveries: matrix layer + playbook is doing real work. Move to paraphrase queries + tag-based boost (currently ignored).
• If lift rate < 20%: investigate why — judge variance, distance gap too wide, or playbook math too gentle. The score=1.0 / 0.5× formula may need retuning.
• If discovery rate (cold judge-best ≠ top-1) is itself low: cosine is already close to optimal on this query distribution. Either the corpus is too narrow or the queries are too easy.